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If you’ve heard it once, you’ve heard it a thousand times: the Golden Globe nominations and winners are a pretty reliable predictor of the Academy Awards. If that’s the case, I’m going to have one hell of time predicting Oscar winners in the annual pool I participate in come February. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
I still have yet to see all of the films which have been nominated (or have actors whom have received a nod from the Hollywood Foreign Press) but of the ones I have seen, the nominations seem justified…with perhaps the exception of the over-rated Borat.

Best Motion Picture – Drama seems to be a toss up between Babel—which I’m hoping to see later today—and The Departed.

Best performance by an actress in a drama could very well go to the brilliant Helen Mirren for The Queen, but she’s got some pretty stiff competition: Penelope Cruz in Volver, Kate Winslet in Little Children, Judi Dench in Notes on A Scandal (I just saw the trailer for the film a couple of weeks ago, and damn does it look good!) and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby, a film I haven’t heard of let alone seen.

Best performance by an actor gets trickier. Leonardo DiCaprio is nominated for both The Departed and Blood Diamond. I loved The Departed (and Leo’s performance) and have heard excellent things about Blood Diamond. But will his double nomination work for or against him?

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy is another interesting category. I loved The Devil Wears Prada, and Little Miss Sunshine (the indie hit which I finally got around to seeing this past week), and liked and admired the bold Thank You For Smoking, too. Dreamgirls has a lot of buzz and like Chicago could be a real contender. And then there’s the final film nominated in this category, the wretched but admittedly phenomenally received Borat. My fingers are crossed that it won’t win but something tells me it just might.

Best performance by an actress in a musical or comedy should go to Meryl Streep for her delicious work in The Devil Wears Prada. But that’s not a given, considering the accomplished company she’s in: Annette Bening, Toni Collette, Renee Zellweger. Beyonce Knowles is also there but she’s not quite yet in the same league as the other actresses.

Best performance by an actor is equally competitive. Will Ferrell was very good in Stranger Than Fiction, as was Aaron Eckhart in Thank You For Smoking. Yummy Johnny Depp is playing the same character for which has already been nominated for a Golden Globe (and subsequently an Oscar) so it seems doubtful that he’d win. Again, I’m left wondering whether or not Sacha Cohen will win for his work as the annoying Borat. I’ve got a bad feeling—yet again—that he just might win.

The supporting categories are even less of a sure thing. Actors vying for the win are Ben Affleck, Eddie Murphy, Jack Nicholson, Brad Pitt, and Mark Wahlberg. Actresses competing for the hardware include Cate Blanchett, former American Idol contender and current big buzz girl Jennifer Hudson (in Dreamgirls), and Emily Blunt, who was so funny as the Meryl Streep’s first assistant in The Devil Wears Prada.

Best Director has Clint Eastwood up against himself for both Flags of Our Fathers, and Letters From Iwo Jima, along with Stephen Frears (for The Queen), Alejandro Inarritu (for Babel) and the legendary Martin Scorcese (for The Departed).
I told you this wouldn’t be easy.
Cheers,

S.R.